The S&P 500 has made marginal new all-time highs this year, finally exceeding the 1999 peaks. However, adjusted for inflation, it's still not at a new high. One could argue that the broad market has gone nowhere in 14 years -- with a paltry 1% annual gain in price (or 3% annual gain if you include dividends). There is pretty good history that market cycles last about 17 years, so if history is any guide, we have a 2 to 3 years of a struggling market. Take a look at the chart below.
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A Stock Market Peak is Probably Near
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The S&P 500 has made marginal new all-time highs this year, finally exceeding the 1999 peaks. However, adjusted for inflation, it's still not at a new high. One could argue that the broad market has gone nowhere in 14 years -- with a paltry 1% annual gain in price (or 3% annual gain if you include dividends). There is pretty good history that market cycles last about 17 years, so if history is any guide, we have a 2 to 3 years of a struggling market. Take a look at the chart below.