But Doug, You've Written About Calamitous Events But They Never Happen...?
Big Crises Only Happen About Every 80 Years or So. Nobody Alive Will Remember the Last One
I’ve written many posts about systemic problems with the US and world financial system, cultural decay and rise of tyranny both here and abroad. And I’ve often claimed that the various problems are ultimately leading to some kind of meltdown or “collapse.” But, they never seem to happen.
It’s seems that way. In forecasting, to be correct, one must be correct about events and the timing of events. If I were a stock market prognosticator, I must be correct on both direction and the timeframe. If one misses either of these, then you’re WRONG.
Governments always manage to “kick the can” down the road to prolong the status quo—usually with more spending and more debt.
However, I’ve also written many posts about the Fourth Turning —published by Neil Howe and William Strauss in 1997. There they make clear that “calamity” happens every 80 years or so. They pointed out that the last “winter” season or crisis period for our nation encompassed the time period of 1929 to 1945. That period included world-wide economic depression, world-wide war, a holocaust of death in Europe, a couple of nuclear blasts and about 60 to 100 million people died and 100’s of million wounded and/or displaced. There is almost no one alive that remembers this time.
Howe and Strauss predicted in 1997 that the next crisis, with civilizational impact, would begin in 2009 and last until 2025 —almost exactly 80 years after the last crisis.
Hey wait! That’s now! Yep.
The climaxes of the last crises include the end of the American Revolution (1783), the end of the US Civil War (1865 or ~80 years after the conclusion of the American Revolution) and the end of World War II—80 years after 1865. So far, each crisis has ended and spring erupted and wounds healed.
So, whether it’s obvious or not, we’re clearly in a “winter” phase of history right now, and if it’s like the conclusions of previous 4th Turning crises, it will end in total war and real calamity that shakes humanity to it’s core just like previous cycles. I’ve written many posts questioning whether Civilization itself is at risk. I still worry that it is. Just because previous crises ended and our nation recovered, it may not always be true.
So, if history is any guide, the next 2, 3 or 5 years are probably going to be explosive and deadly. The ongoing hot war against Russia seems to be the proximate cause. Taiwan is another lit fuse. Israel vs Iran, Russia against NATO, China against the US. All the nations of the world have now aligned themselves with allies and against enemies. All that’s missing is a spark.
I’ve also written about Russian doomsday weapons, for which, the US has no answer. Also, since WWII, the US has lost every major war. Arrogance, incompetence and cultural collapse describe the USA now—especially in our “governance.”
The US, the formerly-free Anglo countries and EU are, either not even democracies any more, or barely so. Tyranny has taken hold in previously"free” countries—even though it’s not obvious to many. No elections can be fair again in the US. As a result, nobody will be able to boot-out the Bolsheviks that have taken control of Washington DC and The War Machine. The Democrat/Deep State will remain in power regardless of the composition of the elected government. The US legal system is broken, the US government is broken, the US culture is being torn asunder. Democrats want to believe that US Blacks are our paragons of virtue. Our debt mountain and the world-wide mountain of debt has frequent tremors.
Buckle up.