Power Generation Emergency In Effect At Mid-Atlantic Electric Grid
Misguided Retirement of Conventional Generation Plants Have Left Electric Grids Vulnerable. The REAL Cost of 'Intermittent' W+S Electricity Continues to be Denied
A power generation emergency was issued for a 2nd day on Friday, July 28 to alert power generation facilities to be ready electrical loads to exceed capacity due to hot weather. Even early on Saturday morning July 29th, some power outages are underway even at 9 am today.
The grid in question is the mid-Atlantic grid called the “PJM Interconnection.”
In recent posts, I have continued to emphasize that adding “intermittents” to a region’s power mix must be matched by adding nearly 100% fossil/nuclear power. Obviously, there is no solar at night and wind also be zero at night—especially on the Eastern Seaboard.
So, at 9:30 AM Eastern time, here is the current situation regarding power outages in the North/Northeast from poweroutages.com. It’s very unusual to see any outages at all on any early morning. I know this, because I’ve checked that website many times in the morning.
You can see mild but fairly widespread outages in Wisconsin and Indiana and in the Mid-Atlantic this morning (IN and WI are not in the PJM grid), but Ohio, W. Virginia, Maryland and Virgina are. It makes you wonder what the afternoon will look like as hot weather continues. You can check it yourself. I’ll probably have a look later.
Sometimes bad weather causes these outages, but I don’t see much, if any, severe weather causing problems in the areas that we’re discussing. Here’s the weather picture at the same time.
I think what we’re witnessing are widespread failures of electric energy policies this morning in real time. Authorities simply are not investing in enough fossil-fueled plants. Worse, they are retiring coal plants due to bullshit political narratives.
Far too many people think “intermittent” power sources are the panacea for our future without understanding that “intermittents” (wind and solar), require a 90 to 100% backup, especially as power demand grows to ‘fuel' more electric cars. ALSO, power distribution grids require debottlenecking and additional equipment.
As electricity demand grows and intermittents are added for political and ‘virture signaling,’ a similar quantity of conventional power plant facilities MUST ALSO be added— which essentially triples, and maybe quadruples, the cost of future power discussed here.
The public, the regulators and politicians are failing to see that you CAN NOT retire conventional power generation as you add intermittant wind and solar power. That’s exactly what is happening. Everyone is trying to “squeak by” by avoiding the consequences and the very real cost of intermittents. W+S sound appealing but their REAL COST is not understood.
Wind and solar power failed Texas in February 2021 during freezing weather and extreme power demand. Rather than a campaign to add conventional power plants, Texas has required that key fossil-fueled plants, especially natural gas generation plants, to be “weatherized” against severe freezing conditions as some conventional plants went off line during that freeze. But again, they are denying the reality of the REAL COST of intermittents and avoiding necessary capital expenditures to provide sufficient conventional plants.
Back to the PJM Grid, via ZeroHedge, a recent study/report has re-iterated these very points for the PJM Grid:
A new report reveals the US' largest power grid (PJM) is shuttering power generation units faster than new supply can be brought online, threatening electric reliability in 13 states that stretch from Illinois to New Jersey with over 65 million customers.
PJM Interconnection published a new study Friday that examines the alarming trend of state and federal decarbonization policies across the grid that "present increasing reliability risks during the transition, due to a potential timing mismatch between resource retirements, load growth and the pace of new generation entry."
Here are the key highlights of the report:
The growth rate of electricity demand is likely to continue to increase from electrification coupled with the proliferation of high-demand data centers in the region.
Thermal generators are retiring at a rapid pace due to government and private sector policies as well as economics.
Retirements are at risk of outpacing the construction of new resources, due to a combination of industry forces, including siting and supply chain, whose long-term impacts are not fully known.
PJM's interconnection queue is composed primarily of intermittent and limited-duration resources. Given the operating characteristics of these resources, we need multiple megawatts of these resources to replace 1 MW of thermal generation.
The report warned:
"For the first time in recent history, PJM could face decreasing reserve margins should these trends continue."
The future has arrived.